This year’s Confederation of Tomorrow survey results are published several months before the next Quebec provincial election, which will be held in October. Although the Parti Québécois no longer enjoys as wide a lead in the polls as it did last year, it is still expected to form government, placing the prospect of a third referendum on sovereignty back on the agenda. The 2026 edition of the Confederation of Tomorrow survey confirms that the return of the PQ to power – should it occur later this year – would not be explained by either a resurgence of support for sovereignty, or mounting dissatisfaction with federalism or the federal government, as neither of these are evident. Some small ups and downs notwithstanding, most of the indicators relating to Quebec’s place in Canada are relatively stable.
The survey does include a reminder, however, of the important role that perceptions of the security of the French language plays in Quebec politics. The proportion of francophone Quebecers who say that French is threatened stands at its highest point ever (76%). And seven in ten continue to believe that they are looked down upon by English-speaking Canadians.
Observers interested in following Quebec politics would be wise to look beyond the horserace polls, that try to predict election or referendum outcomes, and focus more on the issue of the place of French in Quebec and Canadian society.
2026 Survey Details
The 2026 study consists of a survey of 5,696 adults, conducted between February 14 and March 28, 2026 (92% of the responses were collected between February 19 and March 7); 91 percent of the responses were collected online. The remaining responses were collected by telephone (both landline and cell phone) from respondents living in the North or on First Nations reserves, or from francophone respondents in New Brunswick. The sample includes 1,247 residents of Quebec, 1,034 of whom have French as their home language.
Partners
The Confederation of Tomorrow surveys give voice to Canadians about the major issues shaping the future of the federation and their political communities. They are conducted annually by an association of the country’s leading public policy and socio-economic research organizations:
Acknowledgement
This project benefits from the financial support of the Research Support Program of the Secrétariat du Québec aux relations canadiennes (SQRC)
Les résultats de cette année sont publiés quelques mois avant les prochaines élections provinciales, prévues en octobre. Bien que le Parti québécois ne jouisse plus d’une avance aussi large dans les sondages qu’il y a quelques temps, il semble tout de même en voie de former le gouvernement, replaçant ainsi la perspective d’un troisième référendum sur la souveraineté à l’ordre du jour. L’édition 2026 du sondage Confédération de demain confirme qu’un retour au pouvoir du PQ — si celui-ci se concrétisait plus tard cette année — ne s’expliquerait ni par une remontée de l’appui à la souveraineté, ni par une insatisfaction grandissante à l’égard du fédéralisme ou du gouvernement fédéral. À quelques fluctuations mineures près, la plupart des indicateurs liés à la place du Québec au sein du Canada demeurent relativement stables.
Le sondage rappelle néanmoins le rôle central qu’occupe, dans la politique québécoise, la perception de la sécurité du français. La proportion de francophones québécois estimant que le français est menacé atteint un sommet (76 %). Et sept francophones sur dix continuent de croire que les Canadiens anglais les regardent de haut.
Les observateurs qui s’intéressent à la politique québécoise auraient intérêt à aller au-delà des sondages électoraux, qui cherchent à prédire l’issue d’une élection ou d’un référendum, et à porter davantage attention à la question de la place du français dans la société québécoise et canadienne.
Le sondage 2026
L’édition 2026 repose sur un sondage mené auprès de 5696 adultes, réalisé entre le 14 février et le 28 mars 2026 (92 % des réponses ont été recueillies entre le 19 février et le 7 mars) ; 91 % des réponses ont été collectées en ligne. Les autres l’ont été par téléphone (ligne terrestre et cellulaire), principalement auprès de personnes vivant dans le Nord ou dans des communautés autochtones, ou encore auprès de francophones au Nouveau-Brunswick. L’échantillon inclut 1247 résidents du Québec, dont 1034 ont le français comme langue d’usage à la maison.
Les partenaires
Les sondages Confédération de demain donnent la parole aux Canadiens et Canadiennes sur les grands enjeux qui façonnent l’avenir de la fédération et de leurs communautés politiques. Ils sont menés annuellement depuis 2019 par un regroupement des principales organisations de recherche en politiques publiques du pays.
Acknowledgement
Ce projet bénéficie de l’appui financier du Programme d’appui à la recherche du Secrétariat du Québec aux relations canadiennes (SQRC).
Note: The survey data are weighted in three separate ways, depending on the population of interest. First, the complete survey data are weighted by region, gender, age, education, home language (separately for Quebec, New Brunswick and the rest of Canada) and Indigenous identity, so as to be representative of the Canadian population. Second, the territorial sample (when reported separately) is weighted by gender, age and education. Third, the Indigenous sample (when reported separately) is weighted by gender, age, region and education.
The Confederation of Tomorrow surveys give voice to Canadians about the major issues shaping the future of the federation and their political communities. They are conducted annually by an association of the country’s leading public policy and socio-economic research organizations.
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