Here we go again? Making sense of the PQ’s rise in the polls

The 2018 Quebec provincial election was notable not only because it brought to power a new political party – the Coalition avenir Québec – but because it was a historic defeat for the sovereigntist Parti Québécois, reduced at that time to only 10 seats in the National Assembly. The party suffered a further setback in the vote four years later, winning only three seats.

With the PQ having been all but erased from the provincial political scene, surely that meant the decades-long debate about whether Quebec should remain part of Canada could finally be laid to rest.

Not so fast. Public opinion polls in the province have captured a dramatic change recently. In mid-2023, the PQ experienced an initial boost that saw them pull ahead of the other opposition parties. Then in the fall, an even larger boost propelled them to the top, well ahead of the governing CAQ.

If an election were held today, the polls now project the PQ would return to power with a majority.

And with that shift, we are now talking about a referendum again.

Is Quebec independence on the march?

Does the growing support for the PQ signal a resurgence of support for sovereignty in the province?

In a word: no.

The proportion of francophone Quebecers who identify as “mainly a sovereigntist” has changed little over the six years covered by the annual Confederation of Tomorrow survey.