The American presidential election has transfixed not only citizens of the United States, but many around the world as well. One way or another, everyone will be affected by the outcome of the vote on November 5. Pollsters in the U.S. are conducting countless surveys to try to capture every shift in public opinion. In Canada, the Environics Institute, through its annual Focus Canada survey, asked Canadians which of the two main candidates for U.S. president – Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris or Republican Party nominee Donald Trump – they most want to see win.
- Canadians are three times as likely to prefer that Kamala Harris win the 2024 U.S. presidential election as they are to prefer Donald Trump.
- Preference for the Democratic Party candidate is slightly lower in 2024 (60%) than it was in 2020 (67%), when current U.S. President Joe Biden was the nominee. The proportion of Canadians who prefer Trump rose by six percentage points between 2020 and 2024, from 15 percent to 21 percent.
- Compared to 2020, Donald Trump has gained in popularity among those under 55 years of age, and among those living in Ontario and the West.
- Men between the ages of 18 and 34 are evenly split between a preference to see Kamala Harris win and a preference to see Donald Trump win. This differs from the situation in 2020, when younger men favoured Biden over Trump by a margin of two-to-one.
- Among supporters of the federal Conservative Party, Donald Trump edges out Kamala Harris as the preferred winner of the U.S. presidential election. This represents a shift from 2020, when supporters of all the major Canadian federal political parties were more likely to favour the Democratic Party nominee than the Republican Party nominee.
- Canadians are currently evenly split between a favourable and an unfavourable opinion of the United States. Canadians have been evenly split on their opinions of the United States since the return of a Democratic Party president to the White House in 2020.
Survey Details
As part of its Focus Canada public opinion research program (launched in 1976), the Environics Institute updated its research on Canadian attitudes about immigration and refugees. This survey was conducted in partnership with the Diversity Institute at Toronto Metropolitan University, and with the ongoing support of the Century Initiative.
This survey is based on telephone interviews conducted (via landline and cellphones) with 2,016 Canadians ages 18 plus between September 9 and 23, 2024. A sample of this size drawn from the population produces results accurate to within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points in 19 out of 20 samples. All results are presented as percentages, unless otherwise noted.
Focus Canada
Focus Canada is the longest running and most comprehensive public opinion research program on public policy issues in Canada.
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