The following analysis by Andrew Parkin and Justin Savoie was published in The Conversation on November 16, 2021. This analysis is based on data from the Environics Institute’s Fall 2021 Focus Canada survey. This survey is based on telephone interviews conducted (via landline and cellphones) with 2,000 Canadians between September 7 and 23, 2021.

At first glance, the 2021 federal election appears to have changed very little. Each party was returned to the House of Commons with about as many seats as it had previously held.

Beneath the surface, however, some shifts occurred. Most notably, while the People’s Party of Canada failed to win any seats, its share of the popular vote grew to five per cent — more than double what it earned two years earlier.

The PPC’s support is small yet not easily dismissed. The 841,000 votes it earned makes it the fifth most popular party in the country, well ahead of the Greens (who have appeared on the ballot, addressing the prominent issue of climate change, for decades). The People’s Party won three times more votes than the Reform Party did when it first fielded candidates in 1988, one election prior to its breakthrough in 1993.

Understanding exactly what to make of the PPC’s growing support is especially important for the leadership of the Conservative Party of Canada. If PPC voters are former Conservative supporters disappointed with the party’s attempt to appeal to middle-of-the-road, suburban Canadians, it signals a serious dilemma — each voter the Conservatives gain by moving to the centre could be matched by a right-leaning voter lost to the PPC.

PPC voters bemoan ‘loss of freedom’

What, then, do we know about PPC voters? At first glance, our fall 2021 survey shows PPC voters have the profile many would expect. They’re dissatisfied with the way things are going in our country today, feel the economy is getting weaker, think there are too many immigrants coming to Canada who don’t adopt the country’s values and hold a favourable opinion of the United States.

Related reading

Does a Bernier Party stand a chance in Canada?

An estimated 25,000 people have crossed into Canada from the United States at irregular crossings, seeking refugee status and reportedly fearing deportation by the Trump administration to dangerous home countries.

How America could out-Canada Canada

I grew up during a time when it was said that everything that happened in the United States would eventually come to Canada. For me, the most evocative annual illustration of this was the auto show at Toronto's Exhibition Place, where Detroit's latest contributions to mobility and status were put on display for aspirational Ontarians to drool over.

A presentation slide titled “Focus Canada 2012” with the tagline “Public opinion research on the record. Serving the public interest since 1976.” Images below, reflecting Focus Canada 2012 themes, show Parliament, healthcare, flags, factories, and pipelines.

Focus Canada 2012

Focus Canada is an ongoing public opinion research program that provides a credible, independent and sustained source of Canadian public opinion data on important issues facing the country.

Environics Institute for Survey Research

701-33 Bloor Street East
Toronto, ON M4W 3H1

info@environicsinstitute.org

Subscribe to our eNews

Subscribe to our eNews to stay apprised of our latest reports, Insights, events, and media mentions.

Stay Connected