Canadian public opinion about immigration and refugees - Fall 2024

As part of its Focus Canada public opinion research program (launched in 1976), the Environics Institute updated its research on Canadian attitudes about immigration and refugees. This survey was conducted in partnership with the Diversity Institute at Toronto Metropolitan University, and with the ongoing support of the Century Initiative.

This survey is based on telephone interviews conducted (via landline and cellphones) with 2,016 Canadians ages 18 plus between September 9 and 23, 2024. A sample of this size drawn from the population produces results accurate to within plus or minus 2.2 percentage points in 19 out of 20 samples. All results are presented as percentages, unless otherwise noted.

Executive Summary

2024 has been another challenging year for Canadians. While inflation finally began to recede, the cost of living remains high and housing continues to be unaffordable for many, and in short supply. The previous year saw a record number of new immigrants settling in cities across the country, and arrivals continued to build in 2024 until mid-year when the federal government finally announced new limits on the number of temporary foreign workers and international students. The global context has grown darker, with the intensification of conflict in the Middle East, and the unfolding drama of a pivotal US presidential election. This year also marks another dramatic surge in public opinion that immigration levels are too high, along with rising concerns about who is being admitted and how they are fitting in.

For the first time in a quarter century, a clear majority of Canadians say there is too much immigration, with this view strengthening considerably for the second consecutive year. This trend is evident across the population but is most significant in the Prairie provinces, while least so in Quebec.

The latest Focus Canada research shows that almost six in ten (58%) Canadians now believe the country accepts too many immigrants, reflecting a 14 percentage point increase since 2023, building on a 17 point increase over the previous year (2022 to 2023). This is the most rapid change over a two-year period since Focus Canada began asking this question in 1977, and reflects the largest proportion of Canadians who say there is too much immigration since 1998. The latest findings suggest the balance of public opinion about the volume of immigration currently being admitted into the country has effectively flipped from being acceptable (if not valuable) to problematic.

Rising agreement about too much immigration levels has taken place across the country, with the most substantial change taking place in the Prairie provinces. Quebec follows the general trend but at a slower pace, and increasingly is the region in Canada expressing comparatively less concern about immigration levels. Notably, on this question there is little difference in the perspectives of people who are first-generation and those born in Canada.

As before, opinions about immigration diverge most sharply across federal political party lines, with Conservative Party supporters most widely in agreement about too much immigration (now up to 80%). But there has also been an equivalent increase in this sentiment among those who would vote for the Liberal Party (45%) or NDP (36%).

Public support for immigration has been grounded in large part in the belief that it contributes to the country's economy. For two decades a decisive majority of Canadians have adopted this view, but rising concerns about immigration levels appear to be eroding this consensus. Close to seven in ten (68%) agree that immigration has a positive impact on the Canadian economy, but this majority has declined for the second consecutive year. Since 2023, this view has weakened most significantly in the Prairie provinces and among Canadians ages 18 to 29.

Public judgement about too much immigration continues to be driven by concerns about housing, but also by the state of the economy, about over-population and – increasingly – about how the immigration system is being managed.

Canadians who say the country is accepting too many immigrants cite various reasons for this view, but as in 2023 they are most likely to express concerns about how newcomers can be accommodated given the lack of housing availability and affordability, as well as concerns about the state of the economy, about over-population, and the potential strain on public finances. The most notable change from a year ago is an increase in the proportion who believe there is too much immigration because it is being poorly managed by government. By comparison, the public is less likely to focus concerns about high immigration levels due to a threat to Canada’s (or Quebec’s) culture and values, as a security or public health risk, or to an influx of international students.

Along with rising concerns about immigration levels, an increasing number of Canadians are expressing doubts about who is being admitted to the country and how well they are integrating into Canadian society. The public places most value on immigrants with specialized skills and those with a good education who settle permanently, and less on temporary foreign workers and international students.

A year ago – in 2023 – the public was expressing increasing concerns about the number of immigrants arriving in the country, but there was no corresponding change in how they felt about immigrants themselves and their place in Canada. In 2024 this is no longer the case. The increasing view that immigration levels are too high now appears to be accompanied by changes in how Canadians view immigrants themselves and how they are fitting in.

Over the past year, an increasing proportion of Canadians agree that many people claiming to be refugees are not real refugees (43%, up 7 points from 2023) and that too many immigrants are not adopting Canadian values (57%, up 9); in both cases the balance of opinion reflects a notable uptick in concerns following several years of notable stability. On this question, the balance of opinion is the same between racialized Canadians and those who identify as white.

Similarly, an increasing minority of Canadians believe the country accepts too many immigrants from racial minority groups (39%, up 15 points from 2022), and that immigration increases the level of crime in Canada (35%, up 21 points from 2019). Canadians are still more likely to say that immigration makes their local community a better place (32%) than a worse one (14%), but the balance of opinion is less positive than it was a year ago.

Such growing concerns notwithstanding, Canadians believe the government should continue to give some priority to newcomers across all categories of permanent and temporary status, with some more likely to be valued than others. As in 2023, the public most widely believes the government should give a high priority to immigrants with specialized skills in high demand (73%), and people with a good education and skills who move to Canada permanently (64%). Fewer assign this priority to admitting refugees fleeing conflict or persecution in their own countries (47%), and reuniting family members of current citizens (33%).

Canadians are least likely to say the government should prioritize lower-skilled workers hired short term to fill unfilled jobs (28%), and international students attending Canadian colleges and universities (27%). The relative importance assigned to the six immigrant categories remains the same as in 2023, but in all cases the proportion saying it should be a high priority has declined modestly over the past year. And it continues to be the case that even a majority of those who agree that there is currently too much immigration believe that some categories of immigrant – notably those who are highly skilled or well-educated – remain a high priority for the country.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:  Keith Neuman, [email protected]