Political Polarization in Canada and the U.S.

This report explores the issue of political polarization in Canada and the United States through an analysis of public opinion data about democracy collected over the past decade.

The analysis shows that the situations in Canada and the U.S. are markedly different. The U.S. is highly polarized, with support for democratic institutions and actors among those on the left or right generally rising or falling depending on which political party is in power. This polarization was evident during the Obama presidency, but has intensified under Trump, as measures such as satisfaction with democracy, support for or pride in the political system, and especially trust in the president, have declined sharply among left-leaning Americans while jumping no less sharply among those on the right.

In Canada, in contrast, left-right polarization is much less pronounced and has generally declined, rather than increased, over the past decade. There has been a convergence between the left and right in satisfaction with democracy, support for or pride in the political system, and respect for political institutions. This is because views have improved significantly among those on the left, without deteriorating to the same degree among those on the right.

The report highlights why it is important to approach Canada as its own case, and not assume that its experiences mirror those of other Western democracies that are straining under the influence of populism and the rise of a more polarized political discourse.

The data analyzed in this report are drawn from the Canadian and U.S. portions of the AmericasBarometer surveys. The AmericasBarometer is a recurring study conducted approximately every two years, covering 23 countries spanning the Western Hemisphere. In Canada, the surveys of approximately 1,500 adults were conducted online five times over the past decade: in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2017 and 2019. Since 2012, the Canadian surveys were conducted by the Environics Institute for Survey Research.1 Data from the U.S. surveys of approximately 1,500 American adults were obtained from the Latin American Public Opinion Project.

The AmericasBarometer surveys include a variety of questions related to confidence in the political system. These questions ask about satisfaction with, pride in, support for, respect for, trust in and approval of different political institutions or actors. Many of these questions ask respondents to express the extent of their agreement or trust on a 7-point scale. In these cases, this report will look at expressions of strong agreement or strong trust, which combine responses of six and seven on the scale, or low agreement or low trust, which combine responses of one and two.